EUROPOP2019 population projections for Slovenia

What is projected to happen to the population of Slovenia in the coming decades?

The population of Slovenia is projected to increase until around 2024 (to about 2,116,000), and then slowly decrease. On 1 January 2100 Slovenia's population is expected to be 1,888,000 or 10% less than in the projections' base year 2019.

In 2100, 5,300 more residents are projected to immigrate to Slovenia than emigrate from it. That is about two-thirds less than the net migration recorded in 2019.

In the future the total fertility rate is projected to mostly gradually increase and reach 1.72 in 2100. Life expectancy at birth is expected to increase as well, and boys born in Slovenia in 2100 could expect to live 89 years, and girls 93 years.

Despite assumed greater fertility, the population of Slovenia expected to age

In the coming decades, the age structure of Slovenia's population is expected to change significantly. In 2019, the elderly (aged 65 or more) stood for 19.8% of the population, while in 2100 this share is projected to be at just over 31%.

The share of children (under 15 years of age) is expected to decrease for some time and drop to 12.5% in. It is then projected to reach 13.5% in 2100.

Methodological background

Population projections are an attempt to predict the future demographic development in a certain area. Because they are based on a number of assumptions which are usually very uncertain, population projections are just one of the possible scenarios for the future.

EUROPOP2019 population projections are based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and international migrations. It is impossible to include short-term changes in the demographic components in population projections. All the possible demographic consequences of the turbulent events at the time of preparation of these projections, such as Brexit or the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be (fully) included in these projections.

These population projections are based on the assumption of partial convergence, meaning that socio-economic differences among countries included in the projections will decrease over the long term. Therefore all countries are expected to become more similar demographically over the very long term.

EUROPOP2019 population projections are produced by Eurostat. SURS publishes EUROPOP2019 population projections as official projections for Slovenia. Projections for other countries published by Eurostat can differ from official national projections of respective countries.                        

The starting number of population for these projections is the value on 1 January 2019, which is why they are called EUROPOP2019.
 

Data
The main assumptions and the results of EUROPOP2019 for Slovenia are published in the SiStat database. More detailed data (also for other countries included in the projections) are available in the Eurostat database.